EFL play-offs: What can we tell from previous campaigns?

The EFL showpiece event is here. An arduous 46-game season all comes down to this for 12 teams, with three promotion spots up for grabs. A day of destiny under the arch awaits, where legends are made and hearts are broken.

There have been countless iconic moments in the 40-year history of the play-off format, but now it is time for the class of 2025/26.

With a place in the Premier League at stake, data-outliers Hull City take on Championship play-off debutants Millwall, whilst there is a mouthwatering clash between two exciting young managers as Middlesbrough face red-hot Southampton.

In League One, surprise package Stevenage play Stockport County and Bolton Wanderers meet Bradford City – the latter eyeing up a potential back-to-back promotion.

Meanwhile, in League Two neighbours Chesterfield and Notts County lock horns – both having fallen at this stage last season – whilst Grimsby Town and Salford City also do battle.

The stakes are huge: a return to former heights for some clubs, and uncharted territory for others.

Margins were fine across all three divisions, too. Just two and three points separated the play-off sides in Leagues One and Two, respectively, while the Championship gap was also considerably smaller than last season.

Dom Harris takes a look at the trends, statistics and recent history that could shape this year’s play-off battles.

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Importance of league position?

It makes logical sense that teams that finished higher in the table are more likely to get promoted through the play-offs, but how often has this been the case in the current EFL era since 2004/05?

History looks favourably on third-placed sides in the Championship and League One, who emerge victorious most often – 17 times in 21 attempts have third-placed sides progressed to the Championship final and 14 in League One, which is a strong omen for Millwall and Stockport.

Teams finishing third or fourth have been promoted on 15 occasions in the second tier and 14 times in the third tier – Southampton won promotion from fourth in 2024 and will be hoping history can repeat itself.

The Championship final has been contested between third and fourth on ten occasions in 21 seasons, including five of the last six.

Fourth-place curse?

Those hoping for a Northern final will need just the third instance of fifth taking on sixth (Aston Villa vs Derby County, the most recent in 2018/19).

Only twice has sixth-placed in the Championship gone on to reach the Premier League (West Ham in 2004/05 and Blackpool in 2009/10), whilst it has not occurred in League One since Barnsley and Millwall went back-to-back between 2016-2017 – the odds stacked against Hull and Stevenage.

There is a remarkably different story in League Two, where Morecambe in 2020/21 are the only fourth-placed side to get promoted since 2013/14 – ominous signs for Salford.

If fourth has been a curse, then finishing seventh has appeared somewhat of a good luck charm in the third tier, with more promotions than any position since 2004/05 – Grimsby fans rejoice.

More than half of the League Two play-off winners in that time frame have come from the teams who finished sixth or seventh.

Does form matter?

How often do you hear at this time of the season about the importance of teams building momentum ahead of the play-offs?

Yet history shows there is an inconclusive impact. Sure, it can’t hurt, and sides who have accumulated the most points in the final stretch of games in the regular season tend to go on to get promoted (Nottingham Forest in 2021/22 comes to mind), but it is by no means a strong indicator.

Sunderland were the most striking caveat to that twelve months ago after they lost all of their final five games, before going on to beat Coventry City and Sheffield United – there has been a pretty equal split in recent years in terms of semi-final outcomes going to the form book.

Whereas the Black Cats could afford to rotate with their position secured, all twelve play-off outfits this year still had jeopardy riding on their games on the penultimate weekend – nine of whom were chasing results for various reasons on the final day.

Southampton are clearly the form side across the entire EFL, unbeaten in 19 games in the league since January, whereas their opponents, Middlesbrough, were 16th over the final 10 games with just two wins.

Similarly, Bolton only won two of their last ten matches, yet they are the bookies favourites in League One, though neither of the four teams particularly entered the play-offs with a flourish.

The League Two contenders were largely among the most in-form sides in the division towards the back end of the season, with the slight exception of Notts County.

Hull, Stevenage and Chesterfield will still be riding high from their dramatic final day exploits and will hope to use that to their advantage.

What about head-to-head results?

Another metric to consider and clearly to be taken with a pinch of salt, given the varying contexts around the meetings throughout the course of the season.

Interestingly, Hull and Stevenage – two sixth-placed sides – have the better head-to-head records between the play-off sides this season (Hull 12 points, Stevenage 11 points).

Southampton only took two points from their ‘mini-league’, though funnily enough did play all three other sides in succession immediately before their stunning upturn in form began.

In League Two, are Chesterfield the team to beat after a remarkable clean sweep of six wins from six?

Well, possibly not. In the past five years, never has the team in the play-offs with the best head-to-head record got promoted from League Two – it is more varied across the Championship and League One, though Sunderland did have the worst of the quartet last season.

For what it’s worth, just over half of all play-off semi-finals since 2020/21 have gone the same way as the league aggregate, which jumps to 70% for the Championship.

Middlesbrough, Stevenage, Chesterfield and Grimsby have all recorded emphatic aggregate victories over their semi-final opponents already this season – a psychological edge perhaps?

Attack versus defence?

Is attacking prowess or defensive structure the key to Wembley glory?

In the Championship, the team with the best goal-scoring record has won the play-offs nearly 50% of the time, though the lowest scorers have also enjoyed the second most success.

The Championship play-off winner has had either the best or worst attacking return of the quartet in the past five seasons, extending back to eight for League One – a tick for Southampton and Stockport (most), as well as Millwall and Stevenage (fewest).

League Two again provides much more variance.

Turning attention towards defensive units, a third of the previous 21 winners in the Championship had the best defensive record.

Across each of the three divisions, four of the last five teams to secure promotion at Wembley had either the best or second-best defensive record.

Middlesbrough, Stevenage and Salford have conceded the fewest in their respective leagues, whilst only five teams in the entire Championship conceded more than Hull’s 66.

Only 24 of the previous 63 play-off finals across all three divisions have seen both teams find the net – just three times in the Championship since 2012/13, none in League One since 2020/21 and only once in seven years in League Two.

35 of those finals have been decided by one goal, so how crucial will set pieces prove to be? 

Southampton and Millwall far outweigh Middlesbrough and Hull from an attacking perspective, whilst Millwall are also the strongest defensively.

Stevenage are significantly the better of the League One performers in both boxes. 

Strangely though, in League One, there have been more instances since 2004/05 where the team who conceded the most goals has gone up than those who had been the most solid throughout the campaign.

Home or away record?

The first obstacle in getting to Wembley obviously requires a two-legged affair, so how crucial is home form or grinding results out on the road?

In the Championship era, the team with the best home record out of the play-off quartet (Southampton) has won promotion a third of the time but only once more than the side with the worst (Hull).

There is a much more notable margin away from home where the side with the best away record comes out on top nine times out of 21, compared to just twice for the side that finished lowest in the away table – Millwall were the best travelling side in the Championship with 41 points.

The stronger home record is much more prominent in League One, where seven of the previous eight winners had either the best or second-best campaign on home soil – Sheffield Wednesday are the only side in the past ten seasons to win the play-offs with the best away record.

Only the top two won more home games than Bradford City this season, whilst Stockport were comfortably the stronger of the four sides on their travels.

League Two is much more random – AFC Wimbledon won promotion last season with the best home record and worst away record, whereas Crawley Town triumphed twelve months earlier with the exact opposite.

EFL play-off history since 2004/05

Championship

Millwall – four appearances, four finals, two promotions (09/10, 16/17)

Southampton – two appearances, one final, one promotion (23/24)

Middlesbrough – three appearances, one final, zero promotions

Hull City – two appearances, two finals, two promotions (07/08, 15/16)

League One

Stockport County – three appearances, two finals, one promotion (07/08)

Bradford City – four appearances, two finals, one promotion (12/13)

Bolton Wanderers – two appearances, one final, zero promotions

Stevenage – three appearances, one final, one promotion (10/11)

League Two

Salford City – one appearance, no finals, zero promotions

Notts County – two appearances, no finals, zero promotions

Chesterfield – two appearances, no finals, zero promotions

Grimsby Town – one appearance, one final, zero promotions

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