We are entering, as the old cliché goes, the business end of the football league season. It's the point where teams can consolidate at the top, or go on an incredible late run of form and get rewarded for it, like Aston Villa last season. Obviously, the reverse is also true, and teams can throw it all away.
But, in terms of betting, we have enough evidence, both statistical and intuitive, to make some shrewd (hopefully) picks for the rest of the season.
There isn't much value in betting on Leeds to go up, or Southend and Bolton to drop. So, we will try to a bit more ambitious here in an attempt to get some proper betting bargains.
Ipswich to finish in the top six in League One @ 16/1 (odds from 888sport)
It might seem foolish to back a side that has been on a horrendous run of form (only one win since 28th January) and that has a mountain to climb in terms of overtaking other teams.
However, there is reason to believe that The Tractor Boys can turn it around. They will have to recapture the excellent early season form, of course.
But Ipswich have already played every member of the current top five home and away, and have four of the bottom six at Portman Road in their remaining fixtures. That's perfect for a team in need of a turnaround.
Port Vale to win promotion (inc. playoffs) @ 8/1
Contrary to Ipswich above, Port Vale have been on a nice run of form, going unbeaten since late January and taking points off rivals like Cheltenham and Colchester.
The run-in looks inviting too, with the exception of crucial games against Crewe (H) in late March and Plymouth (A) in April. They lose very few games, and that doggedness could prove crucial in the League 2 Playoffs.
It's widely quoted at 13/8 that they make the Playoffs, which also looks a bit of a bargain.
Hull City to be relegated @ 7/4
Hull really look awful at the moment, and the money is flowing in to back a team who have not won since New Year's Day. It's incredible that they are odds-against given their form, and they have some tricky fixtures on the horizon.
Crucial games against Middlesbrough and Charlton are coming up, but there doesn't seem to be much faith in Hull getting results, and those sides will be confident of piling further misery on Hull.
Ollie Watkins to be Championship top scorer @ 6/4
This is a two-horse race between Watkins and Aleksandar Mitrovic, with the Fulham man leading Watkins by one goal. The thing is, these markets are a little different than, say, the equivalent goal scorer markets in UEFA Champions League betting, as the space between games means a slight injury can damage your chances.
A niggle can put you out of a few games, and that could be the difference between Watkins and Mitrovic. In short, this a toss-up between two fine strikers, but the odds don't reflect that as Mitrovic is a short price at 3/5. The betting equivalent of playing the percentages.
Fulham to win promotion (including the playoffs) @ 3/2
In saying the above, if Fulham can keep Mitrovic fit, they can storm to promotion via the Playoffs or even with one of the automatic spots. Yes, it has been a frustrating campaign at times, but on their day The Cottagers are the best team in the Championship.
They are, however, coming into their best form at the right time, and the team packs in enough experience to see them through the playoffs.
Moreover, the other likely Playoff teams – Nottingham Forest, Bristol City, Preston – are relatively weak this year. The exception is Brentford, of course. But again we are talking about a toss-up, making those odds above enticing.
