Hull City vs Derby County analysis: A meeting between two unlikely play-off contenders

When Hull City and Derby County faced off at The MKM Stadium on the penultimate weekend of the 2024/25 season, the mood around the ground was a very different one than will be the case this time around.

Nat Phillips’ bullet header late on dramatically saw the Rams climb out of the bottom three that day and plunged the Tigers below the dreaded dotted line in what was a desperate scramble between a handful of clubs to avoid relegation to League One.

Both sides went on to secure their survival on the final day and now find themselves in a much healthier position towards the top end of the table, in what is set to be a frantic battle for the top six.

Whilst the stakes on Tuesday night may not be quite as season-defining, it represents another crucial clash in this astonishing play-off race between two of the league’s surprise packages.

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Away comforts

Both sides have enjoyed impressive success on their travels this season, with only Middlesbrough (28) taking more points on the road than Derby and Hull (both 27) – though Boro have played one and two more games respectively.

Derby’s upturn in away form – headlined by their five-star performance at Ashton Gate last month – is even more noteworthy given they only had a solitary triumph on their return to the Championship at this stage last season.

However, John Eustace’s side have found victories at Pride Park harder to come by with a greater onus to break down their opponents from open play, amassing just five wins in 16 matches, which sees them ranked 20th in the home table.

As for Hull, they have already earned more points in front of their home fans than their tally of 23 (five wins) last campaign, which was the lowest in the league.

But at 1.80, they possess the highest PPG for any away side in the division and are currently on a run of six wins in seven away matches, which saw them make up ground on the top two.

Data outliers

Many data enthusiasts may be quick to point out Hull and Derby as two clubs that mostly outperform various xG metrics – for example, only already-relegated Sheffield Wednesday registers fewer shots on average per 90 than the Rams.

According to Opta Analyst, Derby have the biggest disparity between actual goals (47) and xG (34.58), with the Rams and Hull both ranking the highest on their shot conversion rates.

The source of goals have been different for both teams – Derby have been one of the most productive sides from set pieces, in stark contrast to Hull’s struggles in that area, though Hull have enjoyed considerable success through counter-attack transitions.

Whilst the Tigers have not proved shy in front of goal, their defensive record has been more in keeping with a side much further down the table, with only four teams conceding more goals (and a sizeable xGA that reflects their defensive frailties).

For those who take a serious interest in expected goals or points as a valid indicator of a team’s performance, Hull have a remarkable xPOS of 21st, just above the current bottom three.

Overcoming key absences

Both sides have benefitted from impressive recruitment over the summer, particularly in forward areas.

Former Swansea City and Sheffield United man Oli McBurnie arrived in East Yorkshire after a season in Spain, netting 12 times and laying on five assists in 23 matches, whilst forward Joe Gelhardt has scored 11 since returning on loan from Leeds United.

McBurnie missed a spell of eight games with a calf injury between October and November, though his side still managed to record four victories and a draw in that timeframe.

Gelhardt’s absence over the busy festive period after a hot run of form (eight goals in 10 games) was also well-managed with just one defeat.

Derby have also been heavily reliant on two new signings for goals themselves.

Experienced striker Carlton Morris has proved to be a shrewd acquisition from relegated Luton Town, racing to 10 goals in the first 15 games of the season, before an ankle injury in November ruled him out for nearly three months.

Boost the frontline

USA international Patrick Agyemang was a significant investment, but the previously unknown quantity has proved to be one of the most exciting new arrivals in the league, reaching double figures in his first season in English football as a spearhead for the Rams attack.

The fact Derby have remained within touching distance of the play-offs with talisman Morris only just returning in the past week to boost the frontline is somewhat of an unexpected bonus.

Both sides have been plagued by injury problems throughout their squad, which makes their league positions all the more impressive.

Hull have been without the likes of Matt Crooks, Semi Ajayi, Cody Drameh and Mo Belloumi for significant periods of the season.

Meanwhile, Derby’s preferred midfield duo of captain Lewis Travis and David Ozoh were both welcome returns in the new year, whilst first-choice full-backs Max Johnston and Owen Beck (since returned to Liverpool) both sustained long-term injuries, which has seen fringe members Joe Ward and Callum Elder emerge as valuable assets with their delivery from wide areas, combining for 11 assists.

State of play

There are a number of play-off rivals going head-to-head this midweek round – unsurprising given more than half the league are eyeing a top six finish – including Watford vs Ipswich Town, Southampton vs QPR and Millwall vs Birmingham City.

With still 14 games to play in Sergej Jakirovic’s first season as a manager in English football, fifth-placed Hull hold a healthy five-point gap to Birmingham City and still may be looking up at the top two rather than the chasing pack, though they have failed to win their previous three home games ahead of a number of crunch contests which could see them dragged back into the chaos.

Derby start the day six points behind their opponents, having slipped out of the top six after a disappointing performance away at Watford last time out and John Eustace has always been realistic around their expectations this season, but the head coach has proven his credentials at this level and has rapidly assembled a squad with enough quality to be genuine contenders come the business end.

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