How Often Does the Championship Leader at Christmas Go On to Win the Title?

It’s not how you start that counts but how you finish. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. The tortoise beats the hare.

There are plenty more adages of that kind that can be trotted out, but as far as the Championship title race is concerned the evidence is that the power of a strong start to the campaign cannot be underestimated.

Christmas Number One

When FIFA haven’t sold their souls for a winter World Cup, the festive period is typically considered to be the halfway point of the English football season.

There are still plenty of games to be played, however, so it’s interesting to know how likely it is that the lead at the top of the table will change hands from here on in.

The EPL winner odds still make Manchester City favourites at 1.95, despite the fact they sit behind Liverpool (4.50), Arsenal (5.30), and Aston Villa (20.00) in the table. Why? Because of their immense talent and potential spending power in January, of course, but also because the Christmas leader doesn’t always go on to lift the trophy – in the last two seasons, Pep Guardiola’s men have hauled in festive table-toppers Arsenal and Liverpool come the end of the campaign.

So what’s the lay of the land in the Championship? The answer will be music to the ears of Leicester City and Ipswich Town supporters, given that one of their clubs will almost certainly be top as the hordes unwrap their presents on Christmas morning.

<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>📖 Leicester City underlined their status as title favourites with a ruthless spell of finishing to inflict a tough defeat on the Pilgrims.<br><br>Read our match report ⬇️<a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/pafc?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#pafc</a></p>&mdash; Plymouth Argyle FC (@Argyle) <a href=”https://twitter.com/Argyle/status/1733534834201371135?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>December 9, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

In 11 of the last 12 seasons, the team top of the Championship league table over the festive period has gone on to secure automatic promotion by the end of the campaign, with 7/12 going on to be crowned champions.

Burnley were on 50 points by Christmas 2022, before going on to smash the 100-point mark after enjoying a second-half of the campaign every bit as eye-catching as the first. Fulham did likewise, albeit in less spectacular fashion, in 2021/22.

Leicester, you may recall, won the Championship in 2013/14 with a haul of 103 points. Can they match or better that this time around? The festive omens are certainly strong for the Foxes…

Ahead of the Game

The league table never lies, they say, but even if you do need some convincing of Leicester’s dominance of the Championship this term, then you can pick out a stat of your choosing and Enzo Maresca’s men will be there or thereabouts at the head of it.

They’ve conceded fewer goals than anybody else heading into the hectic Christmas period, while only Ipswich have scored more times than them. The Foxes lead the way in the key creative metrics too, topping the festive charts for Expected Goals fashioned and sitting second for Big Chances Created.

<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”zxx” dir=”ltr”><a href=”https://t.co/8qt48IbfOe”>pic.twitter.com/8qt48IbfOe</a></p>&mdash; Leeds United (@LUFC) <a href=”https://twitter.com/LUFC/status/1734222845641650406?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>December 11, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

And the three best teams in the Championship so far – Leicester, Ipswich, and Leeds United – top the pile when it comes to winning back possession of the ball in the final third of the pitch; proof positive that the high-pressing strategy that has been successful in the Premier League has now transplanted to the second-tier too.

All told, it’s hard to argue with the title-winning credentials of the Foxes – supplemented by their Yuletide superiority.