Football League analysis: The state of play ahead of the penultimate weekend in the EFL

There are just two weekends of the English Football League regular season to go, with still plenty left to be decided across all three divisions on what promises to be a highly dramatic penultimate weekend of action.

There have already been a number of memorable headlines this season, from Bromley and Lincoln City’s impressive promotions to the shock relegation of former Premier League champions Leicester City to League One.

As many as four sides can be relegated this weekend, whilst two sides in League Two will be hoping to have a ‘P’ next to their name on the standings ahead of the final day.

Here is a lowdown of the key headlines to stay across.

For exclusive stories and all the detailed EFL news you need, subscribe to The Football League Paper website, digital edition, or newspaper from as little as 14p a day.

WATCH THE FOOTBALL LEAGUE PAPER PODCAST HERE

Ipswich maintains the upper hand

Four teams remain in the hunt for the second automatic promotion spot, separated by just three points, though Ipswich Town are in the box seat after their comeback victory at Charlton Athletic on Wednesday night.

Two victories from their three remaining games will be enough for the Tractor Boys, given their superior goal difference over Millwall, who will be eyeing six points themselves from their favourable run-in to take advantage of any further slip-ups.

Millwall will move back into second if they avoid defeat at relegated Leicester on Friday night, ahead of Ipswich’s trip to a much-improved West Brom, as Alex Neil’s side look to take the fight to the last day.

Southampton failed to win on Tuesday for the first time since March 11, meaning that even victory over Ipswich in their crunch re-arranged clash would leave the FA Cup semi-finalists reliant on results elsewhere to finish in the top two.

Middlesbrough ended their seven-game winless run to remain in contention, though the likelihood is they will have to settle for a place in the play-offs after a costly five-week period.

There is a slim possibility that all four sides could go into the final day level on 79 points.

Hull in need of a response

Just goal difference separates sixth-placed Wrexham and seventh-placed Hull City after the Tigers dropped out of the top six for the first time since the start of December.

Hull’s draw at Leicester City extended their untimely winless run to five games, allowing Wrexham to take advantage and keep their hopes of a staggering fourth consecutive promotion alive.

Wrexham face two difficult games on paper, though they may be coming up against a celebratory Coventry City side at an ideal time, whilst Hull fans will be hoping their stuttering side has enough in the tank for one final push playing at Charlton 24 hours before their rivals.

Derby County are still in the mix, despite losing at Norwich City in midweek – who themselves hold the faintest of hopes – though they need to win both of their remaining games and hope the two sides above them fail to win either of their last two.

Oxford on the brink

The picture at the bottom of the table has become much clearer in recent weeks, given the upturn in form of Blackburn Rovers, Portsmouth and West Brom, which led to Leicester’s back-to-back relegation being confirmed on Tuesday evening.

The equation is simple for Oxford United; they must win both of their games and hope Charlton lose twice.

However, their fate may be sealed ahead of their game against Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday, if the Addicks earn the point they need to ensure safety at home to Hull in the lunchtime kick-off.

Stevenage look to hold firm as top six jostle for position

The top two in League One have been settled for some period of time, but the race for the play-offs remains hotly contested.

There are just three points separating all four sides currently occupying the play-off positions, with Luton Town and Plymouth Argyle the two sides looking to force their way in after Huddersfield Town’s remarkable run of three injury-time goals conceded in a row put an end to their hopes.

Bradford City welcome Bolton Wanderers in a meeting between third and fourth, with the visitors able to lock in a home semi-final second leg with a win, whilst Stockport County still have a game in hand against Port Vale and will be eyeing to jump above either side.

The pressure will be on Stevenage in the early kick-off as they head to Doncaster Rovers, three points ahead of Luton, and can take a giant step towards a hugely impressive top-six finish with a win.

In-form Luton will be waiting to take advantage of any slip-up and will take it to the final day with victory at home to Barnsley.

Plymouth had the ascendency last weekend when they were the only side around them to claim three points, but failing to hold onto their lead at Bradford in midweek severely dented their chances, with two wins against already-relegated opponents likely to still not be enough to complete a stunning turnaround in the second half of the campaign.

An opportunity for Exeter

There is just one relegation spot left to be filled in League One, currently occupied by Exeter City, who have battled commendably in recent weeks to keep themselves in with a fighting chance of survival.

The Grecians head to Burton Albion in a huge game, where three points could potentially leave as many as six teams facing the drop on the final day – including their opponents, who are currently four points above the dotted line and will ensure safety if they avoid defeat.

A defeat for Exeter would not be the final straw, though, if AFC Wimbledon fail to win at Wigan.

The Dons are currently on a run of eight defeats in nine and could find themselves in the bottom four for the first time since the opening night of the season heading into the final day.

Cambridge edging towards the line

What an extraordinary season it has been in League Two, with Grimsby Town’s late winner at Cambridge United on Tuesday evening a result so chaotic for the top of the table it was seemingly meant to be.

The drama begins again on Thursday night as Salford City host leaders Bromley, an opportunity for Salford to leapfrog Cambridge into third, though the visitors will be eyeing the four points needed to wrap up the title.

MK Dons could claim top position if they beat Tranmere Rovers at home and Bromley fail to win, though just a point would be enough to all but secure their promotion due to a superior goal difference.

Cambridge take on relegation-threatened Barrow, knowing a win could secure an immediate return to the third tier, depending on results elsewhere, or at the least, keep their fate in their own hands.

Such is the nature of the table, there remains a scenario (however unlikely) that Chesterfield, currently sat outside the top seven with only two to play, could still mathematically earn automatic promotion.

The five-point gap between six sides means an inconsistent Notts County side in fifth are still harbouring outside hopes of a top-three finish, but could also slip out of the play-offs entirely as they head to Colchester United.

League Two play-off showdowns

Swindon Town’s final two fixtures are against the two sides directly below them (cue the drama), though a win at Grimsby will secure at least a play-off position and avoid a potential nerve-shredding decider at home to Chesterfield on the final day.

Grimsby suffered a damaging defeat at Chesterfield just over a week ago but now sit one point above the Spireites following their dramatic win at Cambridge, with the chance to take control of their destiny, though a draw on Saturday would still keep them firmly in with a chance due to Swindon and Chesterfield’s final-day clash.

A win for Chesterfield at home to Crewe will see them move back into the play-offs regardless of the result at Blundell Park.

Barnet’s end-of-season burst could still see them sneak in with two wins.

A mad scramble at the bottom of League Two

At the bottom, Tranmere’s crucial first win since February 14 at Cheltenham Town on Tuesday may just be enough to salvage their Football League status, now sat four points clear of the bottom two but with two tough games to come.

There are two points separating Crawley Town in 21st and bottom side Harrogate Town, which means the outlook could look very different come Saturday evening.

Barrow face the toughest assignment of the day away at promotion-chasing Cambridge, whilst Crawley and Harrogate are both also on their travels at Accrington and Walsall respectively.

Newport County are the only side at home this weekend as they welcome an out-of-form Oldham Athletic, knowing a win could secure survival if Barrow and Harrogate both lose.

Should Newport fail to win, it is all set up for a box-office meeting on the final day as the Welsh side travel to Barrow in a potential decider, which this relegation battle perhaps deserves.

READ MORE: Championship roundup: Ipswich Town move up to second and Blackburn Rovers secure their safety