Why mid-table mediocrity may be a good thing for Derby this season

It has been a rollercoaster eighteen months at Pride Park to say the least.

From financial problems and administration to a 21-point deduction and eventual relegation to the third tier of English football, Derby have endured some dark days.

Fortunately, with the club’s future secured, and a permanent manager appointed in Paul Warne, supporters can now look forward to a new era. One in which the focus is very much on matters on the field, rather than off it.

But with things settling down, it raises the question of what the expectations are this season for The Rams.

A busy summer recruitment drive has resulted in an impressive squad being assembled. On paper at least, Derby appear more than capable of mounting a promotion push, underlined by the team’s positive start to the season.

The Irish trio of James Collins, David McGoldrick and the thirty-six-time-capped Conor Hourihane have added experience in key positions. Together with Curtis Davies, Richard Stearman and another summer signing, James Chester, the team has a strong core of seasoned pros familiar with the EFL.

In the case of Collins, Derby have a striker capable of scoring goals at this level in particular. The former Luton striker most notably hit 25 to fire the Hatters to Championship promotion from League One in 2019.

A similar goal haul for Collins this term may yet see the Irishman force his way back into the Republic of Ireland fold, a year on since his last appearance on the international stage.

Back in his homeland, the bookies have Derby as a promotion contender. Only Ipswich, Sheffield Wednesday, Plymouth and Portsmouth are better placed to win according to the top football betting sites in Ireland.

However, you could argue that the club – still finding its feet under new ownership and manager – is better off missing out on promotion this year. For one, time is needed for all the moving parts to come together. And while regaining its Championship status would give the club a boost in the short term, a potential relegation the season after could also be detrimental to the new project longer term.

It’s fair to ask whether a revival under Warne would fare better in Europe’s most competitive second tier. Or, would a season or two without the pressure of promotion or the threat of relegation be far more beneficial? It’s a debate sure to divide the fanbase.

But what must also be remembered is that League One is as unforgiving a division as any. Just ask Sheffield Wednesday, Portsmouth, and Ipswich – all of whom have been unable to make an immediate return having tumbled down the football league. Let’s not forget, before their promotion last year, Sunderland spent four seasons in England’s third tier.

Clearly, Derby won’t want to hang around at this level for as long, not least Paul Warne, who, in taking the reins at Pride park, stepped down a division having guided Rotherham from League One to the Championship.

With all that has happened in recent years, however, there will be more than a few Rams supporters happy to enjoy a “quiet” season. Mid-table mediocrity may not be the worst outcome for everyone involved at Pride Park this term.